How Many Hurricanes in 2024: Experts’ Predictions and Insights

As we enter the new year, meteorologists and climate experts are busy monitoring the Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30. With recent years witnessing an increase in the number and intensity of hurricanes, many are wondering: “How many hurricanes can we expect in 2024?”

Past Trends and Patterns

Understanding past trends and patterns is crucial for predicting the number of hurricanes in 2024. In recent years, the Atlantic hurricane season has seen an upward trend in the number of named storms, with 2020 being an exceptional year. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) recorded an unprecedented 30 named storms, shattering the previous record of 28 set in 2005.

In 2021, the NHC reported 21 named storms, with five becoming major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). Last year, 2022, saw 14 named storms, with no major hurricanes.

2024 Forecast

While it’s still early to make definitive predictions, several reliable sources have provided insights into the 2024 hurricane season. Here are a few:

• The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), predicts a 60% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 15% chance of an above-normal season.
• The National Weather Service (NWS) expects a normal or slightly above-normal season, with 12-15 named storms and 2-3 major hurricanes.
• Dr. Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, forecasts 14-17 named storms, with 4-6 becoming major hurricanes.

Key Factors Influencing Hurricane Activity

Several factors can influence hurricane activity in a given year. These include:

• Sea surface temperatures: Higher temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico can lead to increased hurricane activity.
• Atmospheric conditions: Warmer air near the surface and cooler air aloft can create a favorable environment for hurricane development.
• El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Research suggests that a neutral ENSO phase (closer to La Niña conditions) may lead to an increase in hurricane activity.

Conclusion

While predicting the exact number of hurricanes in 2024 is challenging, experts’ insights and past trends indicate a normal or slightly above-normal season. As we await the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, it’s essential to remain vigilant and prepared, especially for those living in hurricane-prone areas.

Stay tuned for continuous updates and analysis from reliable sources, and remember to have a hurricane preparation plan in place to ensure your safety and well-being.

Sources:

• National Hurricane Center (NHC)
• Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
• National Weather Service (NWS)
• Colorado State University (CSU)
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)