How Many Hurricanes Are Predicted for 2024?

As the Atlantic hurricane season approaches, meteorologists and researchers are closely tracking the climate patterns and conditions that may influence the number of hurricanes expected in 2024. While it’s impossible to predict with certainty, numerous organizations and experts are making educated forecasts based on historical data and current trends.

The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) Official Prediction

The NHC, which is the primary source for official hurricane forecasts and warnings in the United States, typically issues an annual outlook in May, which predicts the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) expected for the Atlantic basin.

According to the NHC’s latest prediction, there is a 60% chance of 14-22 named storms, with 5-9 becoming hurricanes, and 2-5 classified as major hurricanes.

Historical Analysis and Trends

To better understand the 2024 prediction, let’s look at historical data and trends. On average, the Atlantic hurricane season experiences:

• 12-15 named storms
• 6-7 hurricanes
• 3-4 major hurricanes

Over the past few decades, there has been an increase in the number of intense hurricanes (Category 4 and 5). A study by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) found that the 2020 hurricane season, which had 30 named storms, was the most active on record since the satellite era began.

Climate Factors Influencing the 2024 Season

Several climate factors will influence the 2024 hurricane season, including:

• El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Neutral conditions are expected, which could lead to an average or slightly above-average hurricane season.
• The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO): The AMO is in its warm phase, which can lead to an increase in hurricane activity.
• Warm ocean temperatures: Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be above average, which can fuel hurricane development and intensification.

Other Predictions and Forecasts

Several other organizations and experts have made their own predictions for the 2024 hurricane season:

• Dr. Philip Klotzbach from Colorado State University predicts 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
• The Weather Channel’s senior meteorologist, Bryan Norcross, expects 15-20 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

Conclusion

While the exact number of hurricanes for 2024 remains uncertain, the NHC’s official prediction, historical trends, and climate factors all suggest that the upcoming season could be active. It’s essential for residents and visitors in hurricane-prone areas to remain prepared and stay informed about any developments throughout the season.

Remember, it’s always better to be safe than sorry. Stay vigilant, and stay tuned for updates from the NHC and other trusted sources.